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More investment in property transactions are expected in Bulgaria in 2008 |
In 2008, in Bulgaria, Serbia and Romania are expected greater investment volumes of the property market over last year. More deals with property investment is forecast in Croatia, Slovakia, Poland, Ukraine, Russia, Latvia, Finland and Spain. Meanwhile in Western Europe, the Nordic countries and Estonia this year is expected less than or similar to last volume of investments. This is clear from the analysis of the investment market in EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) of the consulting company Colliers.
In the region impact of the credit crisis is concentrated mostly in Western Europe, mostly in Britain.
Meanwhile the markets in Eastern Europe and those in the Middle East and South Africa, undergo a weak effects of the crisis. While it decreased the number of investors who have the opportunity to participate in the markets in Eastern Europe, in search of capital investment continues to be more of the available assets, which led to more funding of future projects and purchase of products that are under construction .
In the second half of 2008 expected recovery of investment volumes because many investors returning to the market.
The price correction that began in the second half of last year, will continue in this, but will be better expressed in the properties of lower quality because of that quality and profitability of vtorokachestveni properties will be more different.
Among the more long-term effects of the credit crisis will be more stringent practices in assessing risk and in-depth evaluations of projects (due diligence). Although the direct effects of the crisis (more expensive loans, limited funding) to mitigate in the second half of 2008, the big question is whether the economies in EMEA and rental markets will remain strong.
Southeastern Europe
As a relatively small market with few large investment properties Bulgaria is relatively unaffected by the credit crisis. At the time the investment market is facing a lack of operational and investment products as a result, most transactions are for future acquisition of properties under construction. In some projects provide investors and financing the construction. The properties that have already been transaction is expected to remain on hold pending the continued collapse of profitability.
Against the background of an active market in Croatia, headed by rich local players, overall investment is slowing along the coast. On the local market are active investors, and Israeli, German, Austrian and Italian. However, only a limited number of institutional investors participate because of lack of transparency and the small size of the market. Present their investors care most commercial projects in cities with populations over 100 thousand people and the land office in Zagreb. With the maturation of the market is expected collapse of profitability and increasing the quality of supply.
Credit crisis proved minimal impact on the investment market in Greece, with investment volume growth recorded in 2007 and is expected to remain stable in 2008 In Greece are active investors from many countries and local players such as church, korabopritezhateli and rich individuals. Strongly seek offices and commercial properties in Athens and several large projects are under development.
The market for residential and commercial areas in Serbia are the most active local investors, while international investors involved in several large office project. The hot point for construction of office buildings in 2007 is New Belgrade. In 2008, Construction is expected intense and increasing investment in the industrial segment, as the most interesting locations are along motorways E-70 and E-75.
Central and Eastern Europe
Transactions are delayed in Estonia, where properties that are not first class, take account of strong pressure on prices downwards. The search of the building is relatively low (and the banks are not willing to support it) but is growing because there is still insufficient supply of investment properties. In 2008, is expected to be submitted large logistics park, and in sight and asked for reclamation project of 500 thousand kv. m mixed areas. It is expected profitability to be closer to European levels.
In the second half of 2007 in Hungary was more difficult to end the deals, but as a whole were achieved desired sellers prices which resulted in a decrease of 70 basis points of yield of quality properties. Although the credit crisis will not affect in the second half of 2007, it could prove a delayed impact in the first six months of 2008 Most investments come from outside, as the biggest share have the Austrian and German. The market is essentially focused on Budapest, and most are looking for office buildings near the metro stations.
In the second half of 2007 the market in Latvia is observed slowdown of activity and stabilization of profitability. Investors are mainly from Scandinavian countries and Germany, although more active and became British. Over the next 18 months is expected to be open several major projects. The investment volume is expected to remain high, as will increase the number of transactions for one property, and the market will go better products.
With the reduction of active investors in Lithuania recently increased profitability by up to 25 basis points to parvokachestvenite estate and even more to those with lower grades. The country invested mostly foreigners, as the largest share are those of Scandinavian countries, Germany, Great Britain and the United States. Among the big projects are several commercial centers to be completed in 2009
At present, fewer investors looking for land for future construction in Poland, but is not expected effect of long-term credit crisis. Active investors are of different nationalities, whether institutional or individual. The future looks positive to the new projects in sight, strong economic growth, strong demand from the end users, low levels of nezaetost, increasing transparency and development of infrastructure.
The market in Romania is still at an early stage of development and in a strong market dynamics are expected to keep interest of foreign investors. Profitability of quality properties continues to decline, and that second-and tretokachestveni increased. Organizations seeking institutional quality properties in the country, while real estate companies generally invest in properties with lower quality.
Although investment deals in Russia to be delayed at the end of last year, the market remains dynamic and is not expected effect of long-term credit crisis. Local investors are more focused on construction projects, while international (which constitute about 35% of investments in the country) looking for properties that generate cash flow. The main share of transactions in 2007 forms of transactions of commercial areas. In the future profitability is expected to decline.
The credit crisis has not proved too great influence over Ukraine and the strong interest by investors continues. They are mostly international, as are most active private investors. In the future, is expected to have excess capacity building to those that generate revenue. |
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22.05.2008
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